⁦Correlation and the regression line⁩

⁦Read the strength of a correlation from r, find the mean point, set the regression line with its gradient and intercept, and predict inside the data⁩.

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الدليل

الارتباط ⁦describes how two variables move together⁩. The معامل الارتباط ⁦r is a number from −1 to +1⁩: ⁦near +1 the points rise in a tight line, near −1 they fall in a tight line, and near 0 there is no straight-line pattern⁩. ⁦The sign gives the direction, the size gives the strength⁩.

The مستقيم الارتجاع ⁦is the best straight line for predicting y from x⁩. ⁦It always passes through the mean point (x̄, ȳ)⁩. ⁦Its gradient is m = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) ÷ Σ(x − x̄)² and its intercept is c = ȳ − m·x̄, so the line is y = mx + c⁩.

⁦Use the line to predict y for an x inside the range of the data (interpolation)⁩. ⁦Far outside the data (extrapolation) the pattern may not continue, so the prediction cannot be trusted⁩. ⁦And a strong correlation never proves⁩ السببية.